Thursday 5 March 2009

Sugar And Spice And All Things Nice

Extra sugary syrup on the pancakes was the recipe in Washington yesterday as Gordon Brown went from Tony Blair's poodle to American lap dog in one unmercifully long speech.
Yes, we all know America is a fine country and represents the source of the rescue of the world economy and, yes, we know if it reverts to protectionism it will spoil it for the rest of us, but come on Gordon, did you really have to behave like a smarmy used car sales man crossed with a shoe shine boy? It was embarrassing to say the least.

God Bless America

From its very creation to the inauguration of Barack Obama, Gordon was in rapture at its 'bold affirmation of faith in the future' and he was equally gobsmacked by America 'leading insurrections in the human imagination' so much so that he was amazed that 'your belief that there is no such thing as impossible endeavour'. He virtually foamed at the mouth as he expressed his love for America, 'And let it be said of our friendship - formed and forged over two tumultuous centuries, a friendship tested in war and strengthened in peace'. Then Gordon reverted to standard format, calling on his personal experiences and heroic past, 'My father was a minister of the church and I have learned again what I was taught by him; that wealth must help more than the wealthy'.

The thin line of the theme was building his friends up to his central, seemingly desperate pleas, far more blatantly than was necessary perhaps, 'So should we succumb to a race to the bottom and a protectionism that history tells us that, in the end, protects no one?'. So he pointed to the unseen future that he would like America to help him create, 'As the Greek proverb says, why does anyone plant seeds of a tree whose shade they will never see?' For his intellectually challenged audience he even explained it patronisingly to emphasise his desperation.

Finally, 'And if these times have shown us anything it is that the major challenges we all face are global.' Just in case the audience hadn't got the message, which in a nutshell was:

'Help! We've washed a load of money down a drain and we need tons more.'

From Poodle To Lap Dog

Quite what Congress made of all this obsequious goo and desperate pleas was hard to discern as Americans have a habit of applauding even if someone has dropped their trousers and farted 'God save the Queen' in B minor. But for me, Gordon Brown came across as a lame duck, obsessed with the idea that only far more money than his calculator will allow him to think of borrowing pumped down the throats of banks will rescue this economy - and only one country he's friendly with has pockets big enough. The smarmy, syrupy speech was a far cry from the plain message delivered by Winston Churchill at the same pulpit but was awfully reminiscent of the 'We're all in it together, lads - you, me and God' from Tony Blair.

However it turns out, the one thing you can be sure of is that we will be following American policy whether we like it or not for the long term as we have 'assumed the position' and they can ask what they like. The good news is that the ray of hope is Barack Obama - I would rather him call the shots than Bush.

For Brown, this was the realisation of all his little fantasies - evoking his memories of JFK, of the Moon Landings, Ronnie Reagan with a pick-axe at the Berlin Wall(?) and culminating with Obama's inauguration at the 'Shining city upon a hill'.

Yes, that would be the City with a fairly high fatal crime rate, the country whose best selling kids PC program is about how to steal a car, whose pinnacle of music lauds materialism and violence, whose gun culture nurtures atrocities at schools, whose lawmakers support torture and detain people for years without trial on non-sovereign territory, whose commanders invade defenceless countries in the name of WMD disposal, whose leaders support degradation at Arab prisons.

I am not trying to vilify the United States - it is an inspirational nation. But Brown's outpourings made them sound like an army of Samaritans - perspective was in order rather than grovelling for his political life.

The Sump

The US Fed poured around $13bn into GM alone and as we speak it teeters on the edge of bankruptcy if more aid cannot be gotten to it very soon. AIG, that veritable shredder of cash clocked up losses of over $100bn (that's around $500k per minute) and needs yet more aid to stop it from slipping under. Citigroup today joined the band of illustrious companies with penny shares as its stock price dipped below $1 - once it was the most highly capitalised bank in the world. Last month, it was estimated that 500,000 Americans lost their job and in the UK, on the news that interest rates have yet again been cut to just 0.5%, the stock market dived 3% and the Bank of England announced it was to introduce 'Quantitative Easing' (QE) or printing more money - usually the place of last resort for 'Banana Republics'.

QE is the stuff of ridicule in Niall Ferguson's 'Ascent of Money' and the last major economy to try it was Japan. The good news for Gordon Brown is that it is another 'suck it and see' method to stimulate the economy as Japan found. Too little QE and nothing happens, too much and you flip into a rapid cycle of big inflation.

Richard Quest on CNN simplified things for the majority of us who stand incredulous that we are resorting to archaic methods to stimulate the economy. Imagine a pyramid of champagne glasses, with just one at the top. QE is the process of pouring enough liquid into the top glass so that when its full it overflows to the glasses below which in turn slowly fill to overflow and start to fill the glasses below them. If you think of the Bank of England supplying the liquid or money, then the top glass may be banks, the ones blow are businesses and the ones at the bottom are you and I, the consumers. When our glasses are full, we spend like mad dervishes and all the ills of the world go away - theoretically, as no one has successfully used it.

Of course, there are slight complications - nothing to worry about but Gordon's theory book doesn't say how much money should be printed. But that's not a problem as he didn't have an earthly clue how much money was needed for the bank bail outs which have failed as well. Fear not, we taxpayers love to see our money thrown away and made less valuable - carry on.

I shouldn't read anything into the fact that the Debt Management Office, those chaps in charge of raising our borrowing for us by auctioning off our debts, had to sell out our debt at the lower end of the spectrum on the latest tranche of £2.5bn of 30 year bonds. Many believe that we may well have a failed auction soon as the almost endless series of auctions of our bonds continues to support our borrowing. And investors are beginning to run scared that we may not have the wherewithal to pay for it.

Now you see why Gordon is so desperately cloying in the US.

Britain Leads The Way

Gordon would be the first to point out that he saved the world from oblivion. Lord Mandelson believes that was only the start. The green shoots of recovery are visible in the form of Kate Winslet who represents that creative genius of Britain's future. In Mandelson's demented words, 'She is the start' of a bright new future.

That creative future seems to include Michael Jackson, who has announced a series of 10 concerts at the O2 Arena as his farewell tour or at least the one to get him out of hock. If we had an ounce of conscience, we would ban him from these shores. I know he got acquitted but you have to admit, in his case, there is no smoke without fire.

Leading the way forward also was Harriet 'I'm not the deputy, I'm the Sheriff' Harman. Standing in for the PM, she was handling the pesky critters like William Hague at PM's Question Time. And she spent most of the time apologising for getting her facts wrong which is pretty much in line with PM duties so she's shaping up nicely for the job. Top of her list was that she had mistakenly said that Fred Goodwin's Knighthood was for services to charity. If the charity was his pension fund then he thoroughly deserved it for a sterling effort. However, she had to masticate on her words as he was in fact knighted, by Labour, for his services to banking - and now the nasty lot want to try and prise that and his pension off him. Fat chance.

As Harriet tries to convince us she is Gordon's successor by making big boasts about Goodwin's pension and how he shouldn't 'count on it', it is noticeable that many Ministers are distancing themselves from her, forcing to her to mollify her threats by claiming that they would have to legally explore how the heck they would do that after the event.

Now Harriet, if only you had done your job properly and thought about it beforehand then we wouldn't be in this mess. I know, that means actually turning up and doing your job, but hey, count your blessings, at least you have one. For now, that is.
The FSA Roars

Hot foot from their rather limp performance at the Treasury Committee Hearings where FSA Chairman, Lord Adair Turner, gave a performance worthy of an English pace bowler on a flat Barbadian wicket, we now have the new, shiny and very, very aggressive report on the way forward for the watchdog and the markets.

Turner and his CEO at the FSA, Hector Sants, basically admitted negligence and that they were sleeping on the job but that's because the Government had told them to - obviously that's why they were paid so much money to turn a blind eye. So, true to form, in order to solve the problem of having a financial watchdog with all the bite of toothless old Retriever, they have asked Lord Turner himself to come up with the hard hitting, insightful report on how he should have done his job in the first place. It's like asking Tom McKillip to investigate why Fred Goodwin has such a high pension.

Turner is the sort of go-getting tiger who says things like, 'We can see a strong argument for us getting involved in product regulation' and arguing for a 'macro-prudential' role. Turner also intelligently said that the biggest mistake of the tripartite (Bank of England, Government and FSA) was not Northern Rock but 'The failure to identify that the whole system was fraught with market-wide, systemic risk.' Of course, had they seen what Northern Rock was up to then they might have started to suspect everyone else was playing the same game - so it might have helped that they noticed at least something.

The FSA has already proved to be a job too much for the likes of Lord Turner - so he can't possibly be the same Lord Tuner involved in green issues also? Well it would be true to form - there's no point up fouling one watchdog when there's loads more needing the same.

Finally The Good News

It' only taken 22 years but it finally pulled into the platform and delivered - Eurotunnel finally paid a dividend.

On a heady profit of €40m on €748m revenues, Eurotunnel wallowed in the bath of warm, vibrant Euros which have lured many Continentals to British shores and shops to spend their valuable lucre. Earlier this year, I was amazed to see a chap standing with a sign at the Eurostar arrival area, saying 'This way to Bicester Village' but he was soon engulfed by a throng of eager, giggling Frenchies. Meanwhile, on a trip just last weekend to France, I was stunned to find Eastenders empty and the wine prices in the supermarkets very similar to those in my local Budgens.

Still, those stalwarts who hung onto the now worthless first issue of Eurotunnel shares,issued under the vision of the late Sir Alistair Morton, who obsessively saw the project through as the costs mounted and mounted, are finally smiling at the meagre dividend at last.

Having just crossed from Folkestone to Calais via the shuttle in just 35 minutes last weekend to enjoy the comfort of a lovely Chateau hotel that was a former monastery and all the fine food, I think some labours of love are just worth it, no matter what the cost.

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